2pm EDT Monday: 70 chance of development within 5 days, recon may occur Wednesday
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 6/14/2021, 4:46 pm
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Two, located about a hundred miles east of the
Outer Banks of North Carolina.

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche in
association with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of
this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it
meanders near the coast of Mexico. The system should begin to move
northward by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late in the week when the low moves across the central or
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin
to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please
consult products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A strong tropical wave located several hundred miles south-
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is maintaining a large but
disorganized area of shower and thunderstorm activity. Some
development of this system is possible during the next few days
before a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds
limit any chance of formation while the wave is over the central
tropical Atlantic Ocean late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster Blake








NOUS42 KNHC 141620
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1220 PM EDT MON 14 JUNE 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JUNE 2021
TCPOD NUMBER.....21-014 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
22.0N 94.0W FOR 16/1900Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SAG

Recon Plan of the Day:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php



Low is now on NHC 72 hour surface forecast:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif

The ensemble members pick it up better now earlier on:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=watl&pkg=lowlocs
Some of them are a little more east than they were.



GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850



GFS vorticity:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=z850_vort

Euro vorticity:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=uv850_vort


Main versions of those models are is a little more developed in current runs as of posting. At the moment showing a tropical storm based on the pressure. They are focusing more on Louisiana at the moment.


SHIPS intensity text product still isn't too helpful:
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/?C=M;O=D
It isn't tracked into the East Pacific any longer, but it doesn't have a good handle on it yet and doesn't move it much. So I don't know how shear might look along a potential path using it.
36
In this thread:
BILL? - Beachlover, 6/12/2021, 10:45 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.