Re: NOAA's outlook range is out
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 5/22/2021, 9:47 pm
I like to say what everyone else does each year, it only takes one. I guess it's nice to know how likely it is to have an above normal season, but whether there are 1 or 30 storms, it's about whether one of them hits you. I only pay attention to them if they say we'll have an above normal season, which is what I just figure on every year. If they were to say average or below average, then I really don't like the estimates. Then I fear some people might pay too much attention to that and not prepare. It's good that they try to make estimates I guess, as long as people don't count on them for much. The forecasts are for the entire Atlantic basin, a massive area. I don't even like to call them forecasts or predictions really. I know they try their best, but telling me there might be 13 to 20 storms somewhere in the Atlantic basin just doesn't tell me much. I think of the path of a hurricane 5 days out as a forecast. I don't know what to call a range of 13 to 20 storms over an area of about 10 million square miles.
I prefer Jim's statistics. If your location is really overdue for a storm, that's nice to know. You have to prepare every year of course, but in case someone didn't maybe it would make them a little more likely. It's also nice to know how often a specific area gets impacted by tropical storms and hurricanes. It can help people decide where they may or may not want to live. |
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