| The first storm of the 2021 Atlantic season has formed. Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/?cone#contents Tropical storm watch remains in effect for Bermuda. Current forecast is for it to not get too much closer to Bermuda before it heads northeast. Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 500 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system that is located a couple of hundred miles northeast of Bermuda has become better organized overnight. The low now has a well-defined center of circulation, some central deep convection, and thunderstorms that are organized in curved bands to the north and northeast of the center. The system is considered a subtropical cyclone rather than a tropical cyclone since it is still entangled with an upper-level low as evident in water vapor satellite images, but it does have some tropical characteristics as well. The initial intensity is estimated to be 40 kt, which makes the system Subtropical Storm Ana. Ana is moving slowly to the west-southwest with the initial motion estimated to be 240/3 kt. An even slower motion is expected later this morning, and Ana is forecast to meander through tonight while it remains embedded within the upper-level low in weak steering currents. However, a mid- to upper-level trough moving off of Atlantic Canada should cause Ana to turn northeastward thereafter and accelerate in that direction on Sunday and Monday. The NHC track forecast lies close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus models. Ana will likely change little in strength in the short term, but a combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs should cause the storm to gradually weaken tonight and Sunday. Nearly all of the models show Ana opening up into a trough of low pressure in about 48 to 60 hours, and so does the NHC forecast. The remnant trough will likely be absorbed by a front shortly thereafter. The Bermuda Weather Service has a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for the island of Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 34.2N 62.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 34.3N 62.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 35.1N 61.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 36.2N 59.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 37.9N 55.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Subtropical Storm Ana Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 500 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORMS JUST NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 62.2W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 62.2 West. The storm is moving toward the west-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A continued slow and erratic motion is expected through tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but gradual weakening is expected tonight and Sunday. Ana is expected to dissipate in a couple of days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Satellite: RAMMB/CIRA Slider: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=12760&y=3952&z=2&p%5B0%5D=band_13 NOAA - Atlantic: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=taw&band=13&length=24 NASA: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastfullDiskband13&lat=36&lon=-60&type=Animation&numframes=10&width=650&height=550&zoom=2&mapcolor=white&palette=ir2.pal From: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ |