90/90 now
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/24/2020, 8:47 am
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Satellite, radar and surface data indicate that a broad area of low
pressure located just southwest of Grand Cayman Island is gradually
becoming better organized, with a better defined wind circulation,
increasing thunderstorm activity and falling surface pressures since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within
the next day or so while the low drifts toward the north and
northwest. The system could move near western Cuba on Monday and
move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday.
Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the disturbance this afternoon. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands,
Jamaica and Cuba through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Blake






The GFS consistently had developed something from the area and then stopped. Now it does little and Euro develops it some. Now that we have something though, development is extremely likely. So the models not doing with it much right now doesn't mean much. This year sometimes they have been like that. The GFS from the past few weeks was a notable exception that it forecast something to develop and then didn't. Of course now we are getting something from this area.

Entire Gulf coast needs to be watching, with Florida to Louisiana more of the focus right now.
68
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95L ---> Zeta? - AlligatorPointer, 10/23/2020, 11:25 am
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