Re: Low making a U-turn around Florida
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/21/2020, 5:10 pm
I don't know how concerning this one is at this point. It was just a really bizarre path. I usually look at the GFS and Euro to see the likelihood is for something to develop:

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=eus&pkg=uv850_vort

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eus&pkg=uv850_vort

I use those when something can't really be seen with an "L" icon because it isn't developed much by the model.

And the NHC in their 5 day outlook, looking at the percentage chances.

I also look at the "Surface Forecasts" here from the NHC:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/#graphical

Such as 72 hour surface forecast which doesn't currently show anything:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

And I also look to see what the Plan of the Day is for recon:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

Which in the Plan of the Day released today, the only recon for tomorrow is Teddy and the day after they aren't planning at this point to do any, a nice break for them hopefully.


NOUS42 KNHC 211658
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT MON 21 SEPTEMBER 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2020
         TCPOD NUMBER.....20-118

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE TEDDY
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 76
       A. 22/2330Z
       B. AFXXX 1020A TEDDY
       C. 22/1530Z
       D. 40.6N 64.3W
       E. 22/2030Z TO 23/0000Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF


But they never did get recon into what would eventually become Sally before it passed over Florida as a depression. The global models didn't develop it much early on, so sometimes the models don't pick up on things. They seem to be doing that more often, but maybe it just seems that way.
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Low making a U-turn around Florida - Chris in Tampa, 9/21/2020, 12:09 pm
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