Re: intermediate advisories don't adjust the track
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/25/2020, 8:37 am
Additionally, the width of the cone will get smaller as we get closer to landfall due to how the cone works.
About the cone:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
When track updates are made at 4am, 10am, 4pm and 10pm CDT, or if a special full advisory is made, the cone could shift closer to you, but as the cone shrinks because the storm is closer, the cone may even seem like it moves further away when it actually hasn't. You can't get too caught up in small shifts when there are some. You need to plan as though the storm is going to hit you if you are on Galveston Bay. There's not a lot of time to prepare.
This is what the NHC said in the 4am CDT Tuesday discussion which is extremely important if you are barely west of the cone right now:
"The majority of the guidance has shifted a notable
distance to the west on this run, perhaps due to a weaker trough
over Texas and a more westward initial position of Laura (possibly
due to persistent northerly mid-level shear). The new NHC
prediction is at the eastern edge of the new guidance envelope since
I don't want to bite off on such a large change on just one set of
model runs. But since the storm has been tracking west of forecast
expectations for quite some time, future westward track adjustments
could be required later today."
From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/250858.shtml
This is not a storm anyone should take lightly. Some of the models show a very powerful hurricane making landfall, some considerably higher than the current NHC forecast, as of 4am CDT Tuesday, of only 115mph. |
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