| Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents After being near the northern Leeward islands, both the Euro and GFS currently show a second threat to Bermuda. Perhaps even more directly than Humberto. Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 Storm specific models: http://hurricanecity.com/models/ Satellite: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL102019 Was still having some connection issues with this site at times. https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=13461.25&y=7260.125 https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL102019 http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/?type=Animation&numframes=12&mapcolor=white&lat=16&lon=-55 Wide views: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=taw&band=13&length=12 https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-atlantic-13-24-0-100-1 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a 0431 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass indicate that the cyclone has become better organized during the pass several hours. Although the surface center is still situated near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, the deep convection has expanded in the form of curve bands in the south portion of the cyclone. Based on the increased subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, and the improved microwave presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt making the system the tenth named storm of the season. Even though the shear is low and the sea surface temperatures are warm, GOES-16 sounder data and the GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity models indicate that the environment surrounding the cyclone is still a little dry and stable. Therefore, only gradual intensification is forecast. The shear is forecast to increase after 24 hours or so, to the point where it should slow, or halt development, and this is reflected in the official forecast. It should be noted that the forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt, within the low to mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical storm. This general motion is expected to continue during the next 3 to 4 days. Afterward, a northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge, is expected. The NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory and lies in the middle of the guidance suite, and hedged toward the HCCA multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 14.1N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 14.8N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.8N 54.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 17.9N 57.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 20.2N 64.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...JERRY BECOMES THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2019 SEASON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 47.7W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 47.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane by the time it moves near the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts |