8pm EDT Wednesday: Invest 95L, in the vicinity of southeast Bahamas, has a high chance of development within 5 days
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/11/2019, 8:21 pm
"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred
miles are associated with a sharp trough of low pressure. Although
limited development of this system is anticipated tonight and
Thursday, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive
for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits and southeastern Florida,
and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This weak
disturbance is accompanied by limited shower activity that has
been gradually diminishing today. This system is forecast to move
westward toward unfavorable upper-level winds, and tropical cyclone
formation is not anticipated.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

3. A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some development is possible over the weekend or
early next week while the system moves over the tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart"

From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5





Satellite:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=car&band=13&length=12

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850



94L now has a 0% chance of development. Meanwhile, the 5 day chance of the wave around the Cape Verde Islands has increased to 40%.
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8pm EDT Wednesday: Invest 95L, in the vicinity of southeast Bahamas, has a high chance of development within 5 days - Chris in Tampa, 9/11/2019, 8:21 pm
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