Re: upgrade before next scheduled advisory ?
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 7/13/2019, 10:57 am
For those curious, I think the hurricane hunter data indicated it might have 75mph winds. SFMR had a reading of 63 knots (72.5 mph). That's a 10 second surface wind estimate. That was at 6:42am CDT. Not enough time to probably get factored in to the 7am CDT intermediate advisory given that the advisory said "An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Barry."
Best track data (which is 6 hourly: 0Z, 6Z, 12, 18Z) for 12Z (8am EDT, 7am CDT) might come in around a half hour after, maybe a bit more or less, so sometimes they have more time to look at the data. Even though the 7am CDT advisory and 7am CDT best track data have the same time, the best track data might differ sometimes and may reflect what they use for the next advisory. Usually, the best track data reflects what the next advisory will be unless new information comes in or perhaps some weakening is noticeable. There have been some times where the best track data is not used for the next advisory. Sometimes it may have already weakened by the next advisory and the best track data will remain the same, it was just stronger at that time. But best track data can be changed at any time. During the storm or even after the season is over. Eventually, best track data is the official record. But that is more after the tropical cyclone report is finished later in the year. During the storm, advisories are official data.
But sometimes you get a preview that it's likely to be a certain wind speed at the next advisory. And in this case, the 10am CDT advisory does say Barry is now a hurricane. Though as NHC, and others, have mentioned, whether strong tropical storm or low end category 1 hurricane, rain is the most significant threat. |
14
In this thread:
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.