8pm EDT Tuesday: 90% chance in 48 hours / 5 days
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/9/2019, 11:04 pm
"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low pressure area located over the Florida Panhandle and
the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected
to form late Wednesday or Thursday while the low moves slowly
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm,
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for a portion of
the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
tomorrow afternoon. In addition, this disturbance has the potential
to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle during the next several days, and interests in those areas
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi"



Satellite Imagery:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al922019

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southeast-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16&sector=gm

http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/index.htm?lat=29.8&lon=-85.0&zoom=2

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=5399&y=5261



Radar:

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/la/new-orleans

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=30&lon=-85&zoom=7&radar=1&wxstn=0

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southmissvly.php



Models:

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=mslp_uv850

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=seus&pkg=mslp_uv850

Storm Specific Models:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2019&storm=92&latestinvest=1&display=google_map&latestrun=1



Jeff Masters has some blogs on it:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6

The Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) CypressTX posted are going to be important:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=qpf
But even those graphics could be conservative. And who gets the most is uncertain.

NHC Surface Forecasts from "Analyses & Forecasts > Marine Products":
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/#graphical

72 hour forecast, showing position of possible tropical cyclone:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif

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