| http://www.hurricanescience.org/history/storms/1990s/andrew/ Lane is moving rather slow - even moving off shore, it's devastation will be from rain http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/latest_gis.php?stormid=EP142018 http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/archive/2018/TCDCP2.EP142018.037.201808232109 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 37 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018 Lane is maintaining a healthy inner core structure this morning, even in the face of 20 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. A cloud-filled eye is still evident in satellite imagery, and radar is intermittently showing the eyewall at a relatively long range. The satellite intensity estimates from four centers all came in with 6.0-6.5. From CIMSS, ADT had 127 kt and SATCON had 127 kt. Maintained the current intensity of 115 kt for this advisory, although that could be a bit conservative. This remains a rather low confidence and challenging forecast due to changes in the steering flow and intensity of Lane with time. The tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the northwest, to the southwest of a mid-level ridge located several hundred miles to the east of Hawaii. The ridge is still expected to build clockwise around the cyclone, imparting a more northward motion today that is expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This will bring the hurricane perilously close to the main Hawaiian Islands. As Lane approaches, strong shear and possibly some terrain interaction is expected to begin destroying the core of the tropical cyclone. At this point, Lane will weaken more rapidly and take a turn toward the west as the low level circulation decouples. When exactly this will occur is the million dollar question. The consensus guidance and the 12z ECMWF run shifted a bit closer to the main Hawaiian Islands, and the forecast track has been adjusted to better agree with the consensus. I have adjusted the intensity forecast upward a bit to be in better agreement with the ECMWF. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or intensity of Lane, and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast. Although the official forecast does not explicitly indicate Lane's center making landfall over any of the islands, this remains a very real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains offshore, severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well away from the center. 2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds. These winds can be accelerated over and downslope from elevated terrain, and will be higher in high rise buildings. 3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and landslides over all Hawaiian Islands. 4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period of damaging surf. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 17.3N 157.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 18.2N 157.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 19.4N 157.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 20.1N 158.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 20.4N 158.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 20.3N 161.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 20.4N 164.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 22.3N 166.4W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard |