Re: Debby 2? --> Ernesto
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/16/2018, 10:08 pm
I don't know a lot about historical storms, but warmer waters off the N.E. due to climate change will likely mean stronger storms in the future for that region. Probably more forming too up there. A lot of those may not affect land though. Parts of Canada really stick out, so they could see some of those. We kind of think of Cape Verde as a place where ultimately many of these Atlantic storms can trace their roots too, but off the N.E. they're likely to have other origins.

Meanwhile, most of the season left. Plenty of time for things to come off Africa. Invest 99L east of the Lesser Antilles may or may not survive long term. 20% chance at the moment of developing into a tropical depression within 5 days:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Models for 99L:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/

Main global models don't seem to show anything on the horizon for the Atlantic in recent runs:

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850
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Debby 2? - tapesit, 8/15/2018, 11:41 am
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