Hurricane Hector could pass near Hawaii
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/3/2018, 10:09 pm
There's a hurricane that could pass near Hawaii:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Category-1-Hurricane-Hector-Headed-Towards-Hawaii

The Big Island is now partially in the cone, so I thought I would mention it. It would be around 5 days out when it made its closest approach. How close is the question. Jeff Masters talks about some of the models.

Forecast cone:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/?cone#contents


From NHC discussion:

"There is the potential for Hector to bring some impacts to portions
of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of next week, but it is too
soon to specify the magnitude of the impacts or where they could
occur.  This is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.  For additional
information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii,
please products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in
Honolulu."


Once it passes 140W CPHC takes over:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/

Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10E/10E_floater.html
If you know the address, you can still access the floater for the storm on the older SSD site even though it is not listed there:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

Wider Pacific imagery to see where Hawaii is in relation to the storm:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html

Models:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=ep&year=2018&storm=10&display=google_map&latestrun=1

ECMWF:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_uv850

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=npac&pkg=mslp_uv850

Those two are really zoomed out. You can pick a closer up region that shows either storm or Hawaii, but that is only region to see both on one image right now.

Also see latest GFS run here:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=10E&pkg=mslp_uv850
Storm centered. Play it to see how close it comes to Hawaii in latest runs.

You can also do the same for these hurricane models:

HWRF:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=10E&pkg=mslp_uv850

HMON:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=10E&pkg=mslp_uv850



In several days, recon will start:



"NOUS42 KNHC 031516
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT FRI 03 AUGUST 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
        VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUGUST 2018
        TCPOD NUMBER.....18-071

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....A NOAA G-IV
      SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
      HURRICANE HECTOR FOR 06/0000Z, DEPARTING
      KLGB AT 05/1730Z.
   3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY
      FIXES FOR HURRICANE HECTOR AT 06/1730Z.

$$
WJM"

From "Plan of the Day": https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php
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Hurricane Hector could pass near Hawaii - Chris in Tampa, 8/3/2018, 11:09 pm
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