| 2pm on Friday: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Ophelia, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. 1. A broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the east of the surface low. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development during the next couple of days while the system moves west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and passes near or north of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands. However, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development early next week while the system begins to move northward over the west-central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky Outlook with formation area: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/92L_floater.html Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html Models: http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=92&display=google_map&latestrun=1 Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=z500_mslp GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=z500_mslp |