| From 5pm Sunday NHC discussion: "Maria is moving just west of due north or 350/8 kt. The hurricane is currently being steered north-northwestward to northward between a cut-off low over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. The forward motion of the hurricane should slow down over the next couple of days as a ridge builds to the north of the system over the northeastern United States. After 72 h, Maria should turn east-northeastward and begin to recurve as the deep-layer flow turns southwestward ahead of large mid-latitude trough that is forecast to move over the Great Lakes region by the end of the week. The latest runs of the dynamical models are fairly similar to the previous ones, with the ECMWF along the western side of the guidance and the GFS near the eastern edge. The NHC track is between these solutions, and lies west of the various consensus aids out of respect for the ECMWF and its ensemble mean." The NOAA G-IV was supposed to fly around the storm and get data for the models, but it isn't out there. Perhaps it had a mechanical issue. Nothing on these sites from that plane: https://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/#!/map?callsign=NOAA49&mapid=satellite&zoom=13&lat=27.9853&lng=-82.0159 https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49 (this site keeps guessing at estimated departure time, it doesn't mean anything) I had hoped sonde data from around the storm would get into tonight's models. |