| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents Normal Satellite Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/15L_floater.html Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html GOES-16 1 minute mesoscale sector 2 floater (centered on storm as of posting): RAMMB/CIRA SLIDER from Colorado State | RealEarth from SSEC - UW-Madison | College of DuPage Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane and the Coyote unmanned aerial vehicle launched from the NOAA plane have sampled the eye and the surroundings of Maria early this evening. An Air Force plane also arrived and so far has penetrated the eye a couple of times. Based on the data from these platforms, the maximum winds are still 110 kt in the eyewall that surrounds a large eye of about 35 n mi in diameter. There are no reports of a double wind max at this time so no eyewall replacement cycle is anticipated soon. The current shear is forecast to decrease, but the hurricane is moving toward a region with less oceanic heat content. The combination of these two factors should result in a very gradual decay of the hurricane, and the NHC forecast keeps Maria as a category 3 at least for one or two more days. Satellite and plane fixes indicate that Maria is moving toward the north-northwest or 345 degrees at 8 kt, steered by a subtropical ridge to the east of the hurricane. The ridge is forecast to amplify westward during the next few days, but it is not expected to be strong enough to block the northward motion of the hurricane. It will however, force the hurricane to move slowly. Tonight's guidance continues to be in very good agreement for the next 3 days, and the NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight envelope. After that time, the GFS and EMWF are once again in competition, with the GFS defining the western edge of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF the eastern one. This makes the forecast a little more uncertain. The NHC forecast recurves Maria over the open Atlantic which is the solution of the HFIP corrected consensus and the multi-model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells from Maria are expected to increase along the coast of the southeastern United States and will likely cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents for the next several days. 3. Maria will move between the east coast of the United States and Bermuda by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to determine what, if any, direct impacts there might be in these areas. 4. For more information on the flooding and rip current hazards in the United States, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service forecast office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 24.1N 71.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 25.3N 72.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 27.0N 72.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 28.5N 72.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 29.7N 72.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 31.7N 72.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 33.5N 72.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 35.5N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS... ...HIGH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 71.7W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF NASSAU ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 71.7 West. Maria is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), but a gradual turn to the north should begin on Saturday. This forecast will bring the core of Maria east of the Bahamas on Saturday, and then over the open waters of the western Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. No important changes in intensity are expected on Saturday, but gradual weakening should begin on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still likely over portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas during the next several hours, but should subside on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the central Bahamas on Saturday. STORM SURGE: Water levels in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands will subside as Maria moves away from those islands. RAINFALL: Rains are expected to gradually diminish across portions of the Turks and Caicos as well as the eastern Bahamas as Maria continues to move north of those islands Friday night and Saturday. Additional rainfall amounts of an inch or less are expected over those areas through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will begin to increase along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda tonight and Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |