| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents Normal Satellite Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/15L_floater.html Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html GOES-16 1 minute mesoscale sector 2 floater (centered on storm as of posting): RAMMB/CIRA SLIDER from Colorado State | RealEarth from SSEC - UW-Madison | College of DuPage GOES-16 1 minute mesoscale sector 1 floater (centered on Puerto Rico as of posting): RAMMB/CIRA SLIDER from Colorado State | RealEarth from SSEC - UW-Madison | College of DuPage Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 ...EYE OF MARIA NOW NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND DANGEROUS HIGH WAVES STARTING TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 70.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM ESE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 70.6 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a motion toward the north-northwest is expected later today and Saturday. On the forecast track, Maria's eye will move near or just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas today. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions across portions of the Dominican Republic should subside during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are spreading into the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas and will continue through today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas beginning late today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Turks and Caicos...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Puerto Rico...additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 40 inches Eastern Dominican Republic...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated storm total amounts 20 inches Western Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...additional 3 to 6 inches Mayaguana, southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches Inagua Islands and Crooked Island, Bahamas...2 to 6 inches Rest of eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will reach the remainder of the Bahamas soon and should reach portions of the United States southeastern coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0500 UTC indicated that the central pressure of Maria had risen to 959 mb, accompanied by flight-level winds and SFMR surface wind estimates that supported an intensity near 110 kt. Since that time, the cloud tops in the eyewall have cooled, but the eye has become less distinct in conventional satellite imagery. The initial intensity is held at 110 kt pending the arrival of the next plane near 1200 UTC, but it is possible this is a little generous. Maria is starting to be affected by 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, with the first sign of this being a decrease in convective banding in the western semicircle. The large-scale models forecast some shear to persist through the forecast period, and as a result the intensity guidance predicts a gradual weakening. In addition, after 48 h the forecast track takes the center of Maria over waters that were cooled significantly by the passage of former Hurricane Jose. Based on these factors, the new intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening during the first 48 h similar to the previous forecast, then calls for more weakening than previously forecast as the cyclone reaches the colder waters. The initial motion is 315/6. Maria will be moving between the subtropical ridge to the east and a broad trough over the southeastern United States and the adjacent Atlantic waters during the next several days. This pattern should cause the hurricane to turn north-northwestward and then northward during the next 72 h. The track guidance is tightly clustered during this part of the forecast, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous track. After 72 h, the guidance becomes a little more divergent. The Canadian and ECMWF models are on the left side of the envelope showing a generally northward motion, while the GFS is on the right side showing a north-northeastward motion. This part of the forecast track is nudged just a little to the left of the old forecast and the consensus models to account for the ECMWF/Canadian forecasts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands. Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of the southeastern United States today. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 21.6N 70.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 22.6N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 24.2N 71.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 25.9N 72.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 27.4N 72.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 29.5N 72.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 31.5N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 33.5N 70.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |