| This has been added to the public advisory: "Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system." I would add, eventually, Canada too. NHC discussion says: "It should be noted there is a fair bit of spread in the global models and their ensembles, which does not give me a lot of confidence in the long-term track forecast." Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/?cone#contents Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/12L_floater.html Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM JOSE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 67.3W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 67.3 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn to the northwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast to begin on Friday, and Jose will likely become a hurricane again by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 The cloud pattern of Jose has become more symmetric this afternoon, with the apparent center perhaps a little more centered in the central dense overcast. Dvorak intensity estimates, however, are unchanged from six hours ago, so the initial wind speed remains 60 kt. Visible imagery suggest some drier air has become entrained into the circulation of the storm, with outflow boundaries noted in the northern semicircle. This dry air should gradually mix out while Jose remains over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear conditions. This environment favors some strengthening over the next few days, and the official forecast reflects this idea, lying between the model consensus and the global models. In the longer term, shear is forecast to increase and water temperatures should moderate. Therefore, some weakening is probable at days 4 and 5, and that is reflected in the official forecast. Jose continues to move west-northwestward, now at about 7 kt. The storm should turn northwestward by Saturday and northward by early Monday while it moves around a ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean. Model guidance, however, is not in good agreement on the strength of that ridge, leading to some significant model differences on this cycle. The leftmost global model is the UKMET, which moves Jose significantly farther westward than the other guidance in the short term, leading to a closer pass of Jose to the Outer Banks. However, most of the rest of the guidance show the northward turn starting earlier, leading to a more offshore track. Given the UKMET's recent westward bias, the new NHC forecast will put more weight on the GFS/ECMWF solutions, leading to very little change to the previous track. It should be noted there is a fair bit of spread in the global models and their ensembles, which does not give me a lot of confidence in the long-term track forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 25.2N 67.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 25.6N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 26.5N 70.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 27.5N 71.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 28.6N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 30.7N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 33.5N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 36.5N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake Models: http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=12&display=google_map&latestrun=1 Global models: GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 |