| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?cone#contents First NHC forecast, about a 75mph hurricane making landfall in Belize. (There is uncertainty in the intensity forecast, see discussion.) Harvey is the next name on the list. Recon scheduled to leave at 11:15am EDT from Saint Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands and arrive around 2pm. http://hurricanecity.com/recon/ Models: http://hurricanecity.com/models/ (will be numbered as 09 later) Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 ...LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 54.1W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM E OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning For Martinique. The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24-36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. The system is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance should move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight, and it could become a tropical storm before reaching the Windward islands. If the current trends continue, the system will likely become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 Satellite imagery, including experimental 1-minute data from GOES-16, indicates that the circulation of the low pressure area east of the Lesser Antilles is becoming better defined, and that a cluster of strong convection has formed just west of the center. Based on this and the potential for the system to become a tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, advisories are being initiated as a potential tropical cyclone. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, and it is likely the aircraft will find a tropical cyclone has formed. The initial motion is 270/15. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the system should steer it generally just north of due west through the forecast period, with this motion expected to bring the system through the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea in 24-36 h, into the central Caribbean by 72 h, and to the western Caribbean by 96-120 h. The forecast track lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and lies near the various consensus models. The system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and the large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should continue through the forecast period. This seems favorable for strengthening, and the SHIPS and LGEM models show slow, but steady, intensification. However, the GFS and ECMWF models forecast the system to degenerate to an easterly wave over the central Caribbean Sea, possibly due to dry air entrainment. The intensity forecast follows the trend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it respects the GFS/ECMWF forecasts by being on the low side of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 13.1N 54.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0000Z 13.1N 56.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 18/1200Z 13.2N 59.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 13.5N 63.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 13.9N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 14.5N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 15.5N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 17.0N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven From yesterday: Recon Plan of the Day: NOUS42 KNHC 161355 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1000 AM EDT WED 16 AUGUST 2017 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2017 TCPOD NUMBER.....17-077 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING WINDWARD ISLANDS) FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75 A. 17/1800Z A. 18/1130Z, 1730Z B AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE C. 17/1515Z C. 18/0930Z D. 13.7N 54.5W D. 13.7N 59.5W E. 17/1730 TO 17/2230Z E. 18/1100Z TO 18/1730Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 19/1130Z NEAR 14.2N 66.2W II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php |