| Continues to look better: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/07L_floater.html "Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017 Last-light visible satellite pictures from GOES-13 and GOES-16 indicated that the low-level circulation of the disturbance had become better defined and was located near the southwestern edge of the main convective mass. NOAA Buoy 42057, located about 90 n mi northeast of the center, has reported peak 1-minute winds around 35 kt during the past few hours and a gust to 43 kt. Because the system has developed a closed circulation and well-defined center, it is now classified as a tropical storm. Franklin becomes the sixth tropical storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. The upper-level outflow is beginning to expand over the western portion of the circulation, indicating that the shear over the system is decreasing. The global models are predicting that Franklin will remain in a low-shear environment during the next several days, and the only limiting factor for intensification appears to be land interaction. Additional strengthening is expected before the cyclone reaches the Yucatan peninsula in about 24 hours. After the system moves over the Bay of Campeche, warm waters and favorable upper-level winds should allow for restrengthening, and although not explicitly indicated in the official forecast, Franklin could become a hurricane before it makes final landfall in mainland Mexico. The NHC forecast is closest to the higher SHIPS guidance at 24 hours, and is near the intensity consensus and HCCA models after that time. The initial motion estimate is 295/11. Franklin is forecast to move west-northwestward during the next several days to the south of a mid-level ridge that should remain in place over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The track model guidance has trended slightly southward after 48 hours, and the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. The NHC forecast remains near the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 16.4N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 18.5N 87.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 19.5N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0000Z 20.2N 91.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/0000Z 20.9N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 21.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown" "Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 83.0W ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM N OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Gulf coast of Mexico from south of Campeche to Sabancuy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Belize City northward to the border of Mexico * The coast of Mexico from Campeche to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 83.0 West. Franklin is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center will pass north of Honduras tonight and early Monday, then approach the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula on Monday afternoon. The system is forecast to move across the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, mainly to the northeast. NOAA buoy 42057 in the northwest Caribbean Sea has recently reported peak sustained winds of 40 mph with a gust to 49 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Belize through Wednesday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the warning area by Monday afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in portions of the watch area in Belize by Monday afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown" NHC: http://www.noaa.gov/ |