Re: full version
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 5/26/2017, 3:02 pm
A wide range. A lot of uncertainty in the numbers. As always, it only takes one!
2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary
a. Predicted Activity
NOAA's 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal or near-normal hurricane season is most likely. The outlook indicates a 45% chance for an above-normal season, a 35% chance for a near-normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
The outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2017 hurricane season, which runs from June 1st through November 30th:
- 11-17 Named Storms, which includes Tropical Storm Arlene in April
- 5-9 Hurricanes
- 2-4 Major Hurricanes
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 75%-155% of the median, which includes Arlene in April
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. These expected ranges are centered near or above the 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Most of the predicted activity is likely to occur during the peak months (August-October, ASO) of the hurricane season. |
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NOAA CPC - 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook -
cypresstx,
5/25/2017, 2:00 pm- full version - cypresstx, 5/25/2017, 2:06 pm
- Re: full version - Chris in Tampa, 5/26/2017, 3:02 pm
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