Re: Radar loop of Otto crossing Central America
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 11/25/2016, 9:59 am
Some of the water may have helped. I don't know.
Even Eric Blake at the NHC was confused on Twitter about that.
It certainly looks better over water in the East Pacific on radar than the satellite, although the 4am EST discussion might explain why that was:
"Shortwave infrared
imagery suggests that there may now be some tilt to the circulation,
with the low-level center possibly located south of the mid-level
center. However, this is quite uncertain given the lack of microwave
imagery overnight."
From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/ep22/ep222016.discus.018.shtml?
Although the 10am EST discussion talks about it getting better organized again and it is starting to look better on normal satellite imagery.
There is weirdness in things crossing over.
Looks like they are fixing things too on this first real time test.
More technical...
I was wondering if Otto would stay on the Atlantic side of the NHC advisory archive, but I saw it is on both sides. (I checked twice and I think the first time it was not in the East Pacific side, but I could be wrong.) Although the advisory data since it was in the East Pacific is not on the archive page.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/
To get the link to that discussion above I had to guess at the link.
How many storms will the East Pacific have had this year? Although I guess that is something other basins deal with, but having not been used to it much it is confusing.
I'm trying to determine how my model system should handle it. It may be a long time before I ever figure out how to best handle it. The Accumulated Cycle Energy values need to be set properly to reflect the basin it is in, or give the complete storm ACE values as well with a disclaimer. Model data the system creates is left under the Atlantic storm number. So model error statistics do not carry over to the Pacific storm number. Should I show the complete best track path under the Pacific storm number, including the Atlantic path? Some of the code I had designed to possibly handle such things didn't work. I basically had to guess many years ago about how things might go and things have changed in the ATCF system since then. I never really knew how the change of basins would take place. I thought there might be a transition variable in the file to help guide things but there was not. I guess I will likely duplicate the data eventually, copying all the model data over to the East Pacific so that model error statistics will continue. That would make recreating data in the future on my site less confusing.
I didn't know what might be in the best track file. The first two character basin on the line is whatever basin it is currently in. But the one character basin later on the line represents the basin the storm was in for that particular line, which I didn't know would happen like that. I wish the storm number for the Atlantic, 16L, was carried over to the best track file now that it is 22E, that way I can reference things more easily. But sometimes storm numbers changes if a storm is added post-season, so now that I think about it that might confuse things. Lots to think about eventually. |
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