| Forecast Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/175734.shtml?5day#contents TROPICAL STORM OTTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016 100 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OTTO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 79.3W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and the islands of San Andres and Providencia should monitor the progress of Otto, since a Tropical Storm Watch may be required later today or tonight. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otto was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 79.3 West. Otto is nearly stationary, and a west-southwestward to westward drift is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Otto could become a hurricane during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across portions of central and western Panama and southeastern Costa Rica through Wednesday, with isolated totals upwards of 10 to 15 inches across the higher terrain. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Additional heavy rainfall may move into portions of Costa Rica Wednesday night into Thursday as the system approaches the coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch TROPICAL STORM OTTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016 100 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016 This is a special advisory to report that Tropical Depression Sixteen has strengthened. Visible satellite imagery shows that the inner core has become better defined over the past few hours, and ASCAT data indicate that the maximum winds have increased to near 45 kt. Additional intensification is expected, and Otto could become a hurricane in 48 hours, or sooner. No change has been made to the initial position or track forecast from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1800Z 11.5N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 11.4N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 11.3N 79.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 11.2N 80.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 11.1N 81.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 11.1N 82.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 11.1N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 26/1200Z 11.0N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/16L/16L_floater.html Models: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&storm=16&display=google_map&latestrun=1 In a few days, Nicaragua radar: http://www.ineter.gob.ni/radar.html |