| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/203334.shtml?3day#contents NHC discussion: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/122033.shtml? Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/15L_floater.html Radar: http://www.weather.bm/radar.asp HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016 Nicole has a very impressive satellite presentation this afternoon. The eye has warmed and become more distinct since this morning, and the convective cloud tops surrounding the eye have cooled. As a result, subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have increased to T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB. Since earlier satellite estimates were slightly higher than the intensity supported by this morning's reconnaissance data, the initial intensity has been raised to 95 kt, which is slightly lower than current Dvorak estimates. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Nicole this evening and should provide a better assessment of the hurricane's intensity. Low vertical wind shear and warm waters along the path of the hurricane through tonight could allow for some additional strengthening, and Nicole is forecast to reach major hurricane strength before it passes Bermuda. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters should cause some weakening. Strong westerly shear in a couple of days is expected to cause Nicole to become post-tropical, but baroclinic forcing is expected to keep the cyclone very strong through the entire forecast period. There is a large amount of uncertainty in the global models as to how much in the way of tropical characteristics Nicole will have late in the period, and the status of the cyclone is of low confidence at that time. Nicole is moving just east of due north or 010/9 kt. The hurricane will be moving into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow, which will cause Nicole to accelerate north-northeastward and then northeastward during the next 24 hours. This motion will bring the core of the hurricane near or over Bermuda on Thursday. In about 72 hours a shortwave trough is forecast to bypass the cyclone, which should cause Nicole to slow down and meander over the North Atlantic at days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 29.2N 66.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 30.5N 66.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 32.7N 64.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 34.6N 61.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 36.6N 57.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 38.8N 51.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 16/1800Z 38.8N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 17/1800Z 40.0N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brown HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016 ...NICOLE STRENGTHENS AS IT TAKES AIM ON BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 66.6W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 66.6 West. Nicole is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected tonight. A northeast turn with an additional increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Hurricane Nicole will pass near or over Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight or early Thursday, and Nicole is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda tonight and early Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown |