In VA....several local station meterology types having been talking on how they 'got this one wrong'
Posted by
AquaRN on 10/9/2016, 8:28 pm
As you may or may not know, Hampton Roads (VA Bch, Norfolk, Chesapeake, Suffolk, Portsmouth and surrounding areas) got absolutely 'sucker punched' by Matthew.
The last 48 hrs here has been awful. Much damage, a LOT of areal flooding, highwinds, 120+ roads still closed, 200,000 still out of power, copious rain.
For reasons unknown, that right turn and then loop was emphasized in most forecasts from several models. And, the watches and warnings stopped at Duck, NC. That was a big mistake. I know that the NHC tries to be sensitive to unneccesary inclusion of area for those warnings...but this time, I SURE wish they would have gone with the gut feeling that perhaps that right turn would not happen. They should have had warnings all the way to Delmarva instead of stopping in Duck, NC. (Norfolk was in the 8% chance in the Wind Probabilities category for example.)
For the record....I do appreciate the hard work and all the model input with flights. They are the best in the world. And, those models are usually great indicators...especially when they narrow. This time that did not work. People here saw that sharp cut of right turn...and went about their merry way with no thoughts of the 'what ifs'.
But, this area...which was NOT under any watches or warnings...has learned a tough lesson...do not overtrust models or the fellows on the weather segment.
What happened was unusual...to be certain. The front gobbled up the Matthew energy...and became a monster nor-easter hybrid.
Matthew was one to remember. This area looks a lot like it did after Floyd and Isabel. The river flooding is severe.... |
280
In this thread:
In VA....several local station meterology types having been talking on how they 'got this one wrong' - AquaRN, 10/9/2016, 8:28 pm Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.