Re: 8am Sunday: 150mph; NW at 5mph; 947mb
Posted by Gianmarc on 10/2/2016, 11:03 am
The upper levels hardly look favorable to me: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom

We have 20 kts of shear directly over the system right now. Just a hair north of Matt we have as much as 25-30 kts of shear.

This is the upper-level scenario the NHC's forecast discussions have anticipated for days, hence the weakening trend in their intensity forecast.

I'm not sold on upwelling at this point, though I would have been yesterday when it looped around over the same patch of water. Right now, however, it's farther north and west than ever before so it's over or reaching waters it hasn't had the chance to turn over.
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8am Sunday: 150mph; NW at 5mph; 947mb - Chris in Tampa, 10/2/2016, 7:40 am
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