| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/085628.shtml?5day#contents Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/14L_floater.html HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 The overall organization of the hurricane has changed little overnight, with the small eye remaining distinct in infrared satellite pictures. A very recent AMSR2 microwave overpass showed no indication of an eyewall replacement, but there was a notable dry slot between the inner core and the outer bands over the southern portion of the circulation. Although Dvorak data T-numbers decreased slightly at 0600 UTC, the objective and subjective CI numbers are about the same as before, so the initial intensity will remain 130 kt for this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Matthew this morning, which should provide a better assessment of the hurricane's current strength and structure. Although some weakening is predicted during the next couple of days, Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane when it approaches the islands of the Greater Antilles in a couple of days. The upper-level wind environment is expected to remain favorable over the Bahamas, and warm waters in that area should allow Matthew to maintain much of its intensity while it moves over that area later in the forecast period. Matthew has been moving slowly west-northwestward during the past few hours, but the longer-term motion estimate is northwest or 320 degrees at 4 kt. The forecast track reasoning remains unchanged from before. Matthew should move slowly northwestward today, and then turn northward tonight as a mid- to upper-level trough develops over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This motion will take Matthew towards Jamaica, western Haiti, and eastern Cuba over the next couple of days. After that time, the global models bend Matthew back toward the north-northwest between the aforementioned trough and a developing ridge off the northeast United States coast. The dynamical models are in good agreement on this scenario through 72 hours, with increasing spread thereafter. The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET are along the western side of the guidance at days 4 and 5, while the HWRF is along the eastern side. The latest NHC track is close to the model consensus through day 3, but is west of the consensus at 96 and 120 h, to be closer to the typically better performing global models. It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5. Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 13.9N 74.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 14.6N 74.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.6N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.1N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 18.8N 74.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 22.6N 74.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 25.5N 75.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 28.0N 76.2W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 74.1W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the north coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas eastward to the border with the Dominican Republic. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, and Long Cay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, and Long Cay * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 74.1 West. Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti this evening, and eastern Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Monday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through today. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...6 to 9 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...3 to 5 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg |