Re: We now have Tropical Storm Matthew
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/28/2016, 11:45 am
Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145747.shtml?5day#contents

Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/14L_floater.html









TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016

Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical wave passing
through the Windward Islands has acquired a closed circulation.  The
aircraft found peak flight-level winds of 64 kt, and SFMR surface
winds of around 50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation.
As a result, advisories are being initiated on a 50-kt tropical
storm. The current lack of inner core structure suggests that
further strengthening should be limited today, but environmental
conditions consisting of warm water and low shear ahead of Matthew
favor intensification throughout the remainder of the forecast
period. The NHC intensity forecast is more conservative than the
statistical guidance, but follows the trends of the global models
in deepening the system.

Since the center has very recently formed, the initial motion
estimate is a highly uncertain 275/18 kt.  A strong deep-layer ridge
over the western Atlantic should steer Matthew westward across the
eastern Caribbean during the next few days, and the track guidance
is tightly clustered through 72 hours.  After that time, the
tropical cyclone will be approaching the western portion of the
ridge and a northwestward turn is expected, although there are
significant differences among the track models as to when the turn
takes place and how sharp it will be.  The GFS takes the cyclone
northwestward much faster than the ECMWF with more troughing
developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  For now, the NHC track
lies near a consensus of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 13.4N  60.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  29/0000Z 13.6N  63.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  29/1200Z 13.9N  66.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  30/0000Z 13.9N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  30/1200Z 13.8N  71.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  01/1200Z 13.5N  74.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  02/1200Z 14.8N  75.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 17.5N  76.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown









TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016

...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORMS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 60.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the French Islands of
Guadeloupe and Martinique.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados, Dominica, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe and Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands

Interests in Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and elsewhere in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 60.7 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A westward motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of
days.  On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move
through the Windward Islands during the next couple of hours, and
move over the eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday.

Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Matthew could become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
primarily to the notheast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over
the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands witin
the next few hours and continue into this evening.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday.  These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown









Jim had an update several hours ago while it was still 97L:



Models:

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&storm=14&display=google_map&latestrun=1
http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/
252
In this thread:
We now have Tropical Storm Matthew - freesong, 9/28/2016, 11:07 am
  • Re: We now have Tropical Storm Matthew - Chris in Tampa, 9/28/2016, 11:45 am
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