97L / Matthew Thoughts
Posted by
Jake on 9/27/2016, 11:55 am
Morning visible/vapor imagery shows a well defined developing cyclone. Currently, there appears to be some mid level dry air that has worked into the system, but warm SST's should mitigate this by allowing thermodynamic process to continue to fire convection. Upper air conditions are favorable for continued gradual development.
However, over most of the Caribbean there's a broad upper trough, although all of the guidance keeps a large upper high over the cyclone most have had trouble this year analyzing wind shear, so don't think this will intensify quickly for now, but reach tropical storm status before or over the Lessor Antilles.
Finally, a W -WNW track is likely over the next several days as a mid level ridge remains N or the system. After that a large spread in the track begins around 70w with the GFS being the furthest east and the Euro further west... the rest of the models follow there respective camps, but most have shifted west. Of most importance, the Euro!!! Of note, 70w appears to be where most the reliable guidance keep the break or weakness in the ridge, which bring poleward a rather strong cane!! Any further westward shift, increases US threat per Euro!! |
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97L / Matthew Thoughts - Jake, 9/27/2016, 11:55 am
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