Re: What in the world is going on with the GFS??
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/26/2016, 3:49 am
I don't think I've ever seen anything like that before. Wow. Although, maybe a moderate tropical storm (1001mb) at most in the part of the wackiness that involves the boomerang into Tampa. Of course the odds of that run happening like that I am going to put at oh hell no.

Direct link to that run that will be available for about a week:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2016082600
And a GIF image loop saved here for posterity (11 megabytes): http://imgur.com/a/IkF3W

Or surface version of that run:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=2016082600
And another GIF image loop (6 megabytes): http://imgur.com/a/NKouE

As for the borderline category 5 (927mb) at the end of the 16 day GFS. It's been cranking out some storms in the long range for a bit, at times. I've ignored it so far. Models are having issues with the current environment days out, no need to think about things that the GFS has in the longer range where the accuracy gets so much lower. Impossible, no, but the chances of something like that at the end of the 16 day GFS happening are around the chances of it eventually happening when the end of the 16 day GFS didn't show it that far out, and it's not something we give a tremendous amount of thought about for the latter. Some runs it has been showing next to nothing out there and others, up to showing a large hurricane, though where varies a lot. As 99L shows, you need to have something before the models can get a sense of things and then start paying more attention if needed.

As for the GFS as it relates to 99L, I don't know what to make of it. At least it is weak. Euro is weak too. At the moment, 99L shows no signs of doing anything in the short term which is good. We'll have to see if it survives first.
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What in the world is going on with the GFS?? - Beachlover, 8/26/2016, 2:34 am
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