Re: A question about Katrina and Now
Posted by CX on 8/25/2016, 4:12 pm
Yeah, so when pre-Katrina was developing in the Bahamas, there was a lot of discussion about whether to assign it TD 10 or TD 12. TD 10 was its precursor, but it fizzles around the Leewards. The reason they went with TD 12 was because the low-level circ from TD 10 completely dissipated; the low-level vorticity in Katrina developed because of interaction with a tropical wave that was in the area. TD 10's remnant MLC aided the development, but the use of a different number (i.e. 12) was predicated on the new low-level influence.

Now 99L... the biggest problem it is having right now are two-fold in my mind. 1) Shear. Too much of it. It was forecast to wane N of Haiti yesterday, but the axis has moved in quasi-lockstep with 99L, so the storm is still sheared despite the previous forecasts. 2) Proximity to Hispaniola and W Cuba. Both are mountainous and tend to disrupt southerly flows along the backside of developing lows. 99L had the unenviable luck of having shear wipe out any ability it has to develop and hold convection while having its main source of inflow disrupted. It is now spinning harmlessly in a rather dry, sheared environment and unless dynamics change, it won't do much.

As for development down the road in the GOM, I haven't a clue at this juncture. I can't rule it out, but first thing's first: the shear needs to relax.
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A question about Katrina and Now - Mark in PC Beach, 8/25/2016, 2:41 pm
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