Re: 99L 2pm Wed: Still 80%, 5 days; 60%, 48hrs; "system still lacks a well-defined circulation"
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/24/2016, 2:43 pm
Even the 0Z Euro though waited until the Bahamas to start development. And then it went crazy with it.

12Z Euro's track has shifted east:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_uv850

At 144 hours, it is a strong tropical storm over Tampa. 168 hours around the Big Bend area as maybe around a 75mph hurricane.

Meanwhile the 12Z GFS, along the east coast of Florida with a weak low:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850

So still, even the Euro doesn't see much development until at least the Bahamas, while the GFS thinks next to nothing at all still. While the models are finding it really hard to deal with this storm, the GFS and Euro at least have tracks that are a bit closer, and even on intensity compared to what the 0Z Euro had.
118
In this thread:
99L 2pm Wed: Still 80%, 5 days; 60%, 48hrs; "system still lacks a well-defined circulation" - Chris in Tampa, 8/24/2016, 2:00 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.