Re: 18.1/63.0 - Naked
Posted by Gianmarc on 8/24/2016, 12:17 pm
Exactly. Shear taking a toll on 99L this morning, but now more than ever it appears clear where the "center" is located even if it is not technically an entirely "closed" low just yet. Norcross said something interesting in his last blog post about this system, that if it does not get its act together today it may remain weak for the long haul because it will struggle to fight off dry air and it will struggle too in its battle against wind shear. If it looks this disorganized tomorrow morning chances may be greater that whatever happens with this system it likely will be a weak one. Even if it enters the GoM, Norcross also suggests its chances of intensifying there likely would lessen if it had not done so prior to entering the Gulf. It is starting to look like 99L may be a struggling system for the duration of its existence, but as I know no one needs reminding here, it still is somewhat early and intensity forecasting remains the Achilles' heel of tropical weather prognostication.

Those interested in the Norcross post can read it here: https://www.wunderground.com/blog/bnorcross/getting-ready-to-get-ready

One thing I have said here a lot over the years I think does bear repeating now: Lots of attention is being paid to how warm some waters are out ahead of 99L, approaching 87 degrees in and around the Bahamas. But if dry air continues to intrude on it and/or wind shear continues to be an obstacle, water temps are irrelevant. You can turn the Florida Straits into a pot of boiling water and yet it won't help a storm any if it's getting its guts ripped out by shear and/or dry air.
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Does 99L have a defined LLC at around 16.5/57.5? - LawKat, 8/23/2016, 12:17 pm
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