Re: Does 99L have a defined LLC at around 16.5/57.5?
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/24/2016, 8:41 am
The problem for areas after Hispaniola (where flooding can be terrible) is that it will then have gotten further west and could then develop, riding above Cuba and clipping, or not, parts of the southern peninsula of Florida (and/or Keys as well) and then entering the Gulf.

GFS:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn
6Z Wednesday, weak low, traveling around Miami, SW coast of Florida, Tampa, Big Bend area and then back across state into Atlantic and then developing in the Atlantic between U.S. east coast and Bermuda.

Euro:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850
0Z Wednesday, strengthening tropical storm around Miami, traveling across southern tip of Florida, into the Gulf and developing into a strong hurricane on a then Rita like path toward the LA/TX border.

The threat is increasing to the Gulf based on the models which have been shifting more west.

More models, 8am EDT early cycle / 2am late cycle models (12Z early / 6Z late) will soon be available here:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&storm=99&latestinvest=1&display=google_map&latestrun=1
Likely after 9am EDT, although again model performance on an area yet to develop, and with so little recon, is not usually as good. And with this storm, the models sure have been divergent.
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Does 99L have a defined LLC at around 16.5/57.5? - LawKat, 8/23/2016, 12:17 pm
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