| It was 40% at 8pm through 48 hours. Chance of development through 5 days remained at 60%. "TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fiona, located several hundred miles north-northeast of the Leeward Islands, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 450 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. 1. A tropical wave located about 400 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands is producing widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms. Conditions are marginally conducive for gradual development while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to westward at 15 to 20 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for a tropical depression to form by late this week when the system is forecast to move near Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later this morning. Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent Public Advisories on Gaston are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Gaston are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. Forecaster Stewart" From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 It's starting to look a whole lot better on satellite. At 2am the best track data was at 30 knots, gusting to 40 knots. Recon is later today. "NOUS42 KNHC 221411 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1015 AM EDT MON 22 AUGUST 2016 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2016 TCPOD NUMBER.....16-088 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR LESSER ANTILLES) FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71 A. 23/1500Z A. 23/2330Z,24/0530Z B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 0208A CYCLONE C. 23/1300Z C. 23/2200Z D. 16.0N 56.5W D. 16.5N 59.0W E. 23/1445Z TO 23/1800Z E. 23/2300Z TO 24/0530Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 72 A. 24/1130Z,1730Z B. AFXXX 0308A CYCLONE C. 24/1030Z D. 17.5N 62.0W E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1730Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE." From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php Might reach where they think the center could be around 11am EDT. http://hurricanecity.com/recon/ Satellite floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/99L_floater.html Radars... Martinique: http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles Martinique and other available radars, composite: http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/kidbuuComposite_displayer.php?Product=Reflectivity&Sector=EC_Bar&Composite=Sabre From: http://barbadosweather.org/BMS_radar_Composite.php Barbados radar is out of date at the moment (from Monday right now): http://www.barbadosweather.org/barbados-weather-Radar-SABDriver.php Shear forecast: * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 42 46 51 53 57 61 66 69 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 42 46 51 53 57 61 66 69 (DSHP) V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 44 47 52 58 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 9 10 15 11 14 12 9 8 11 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 6 -1 -1 6 0 2 0 -1 -4 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 299 316 333 287 277 304 295 334 279 303 295 290 289 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 146 147 149 151 154 152 151 154 154 156 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 147 146 146 148 147 145 138 134 135 134 135 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 57 58 57 56 54 55 56 60 63 66 66 65 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 44 45 40 37 27 15 2 -7 -6 7 4 14 7 200 MB DIV -14 3 18 16 -1 8 16 5 -3 15 0 11 -1 700-850 TADV -3 0 1 2 4 0 -2 -3 -5 0 -3 0 -2 LAND (KM) 867 775 728 571 396 92 144 138 175 245 300 362 411 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.8 19.8 20.7 21.3 22.0 22.5 23.1 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 55.2 57.0 58.8 60.4 62.0 65.0 67.3 69.1 70.0 70.8 71.3 71.9 72.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 17 16 16 13 11 7 5 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 67 54 35 52 77 48 53 57 55 64 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):282/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 21. 23. 27. 31. 36. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.2 55.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.75 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.50 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.69 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.13 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.80 1.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 188.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 26.5% 14.0% 10.8% 8.4% 9.4% 19.5% Logistic: 5.3% 28.1% 17.8% 8.7% 0.0% 5.0% 7.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 4.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 19.6% 11.1% 6.6% 2.8% 4.9% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/23/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/23/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 37 42 46 51 53 57 61 66 69 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 39 43 48 50 54 58 63 66 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 39 44 46 50 54 59 62 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 31 36 38 42 46 51 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT From: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ Various storm information on 99L from HurricaneCity: http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&storm=99&latestinvest=1 NASA IR satellite Still a giant difference from the HWRF and GFDL. 0Z GFDL, out 126 hours, 1007mb: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p®ion=99L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&fh=126 0Z HWRF, out 126 hours, 945mb: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p®ion=99L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&fh=126 0Z ECMWF, south Florida landfall: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850&fh=144 0Z GFS, kind of hard to track, here it is 252 hours out in the Bahamas before it moves off into the Atlantic, maybe around Bermuda: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850&fh=252 You can select what run you want to view on that page. |