Re: Thoughts on the new Invest 99 ?
Posted by Gianmarc on 8/19/2016, 6:49 pm
Very interesting. To me, comparing the system's rather poor appearance right now against that intensity forecast from the hwrf, I'd say intensity forecasting remains, shall we say, a "challenge." I have a very hard time seeing this thing reach 'cane status by the Antilles. Lots of dry air and too broad a circulation for intensification to occur rapidly in the near term. What's starting to interest me more than anything else as (very) preliminary signs indicate potential entry into the Caribbean or the GoM way down the line is: What will atmospheric conditions look like in those bodies of water 7 to 10 days from now? I'll have my eye on wind shear forecasts for those areas.

I think you will agree, Jim, that the biggest reasons the last 10 years in the tropics have been nothing like 2004 or 2005 are merciless wind shear and abundant dry air.
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Thoughts on the new Invest 99 ? - AquaRN, 8/18/2016, 8:22 pm
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