Mon. 2am: T'storms with 97L have "increased & become significantly better organized overnight"
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/1/2016, 2:29 am
Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/97L_floater.html
"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea about 200
miles south of the Dominican Republic has increased and become
significantly better organized overnight. Although this system still
lacks a closed surface circulation, recent satellite-derived surface
wind data and ship observations indicate that tropical-storm-force
winds of 40 to 45 mph are occurring on the northern and eastern
areas of the large disturbance. If this recent development trend
continues, then a tropical storm could form later today when the
wave moves into the central Caribbean Sea, or by early Tuesday as it
approaches Jamaica and moves into the western Caribbean Sea. Locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are expected over Hispaniola today, and
reaching Jamaica and Cuba by late Monday as the system moves
westward at 20 to 25 mph. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in
the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of
this strong disturbance. For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Forecaster Stewart"
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
They kind of underestimated this system. Recon was not scheduled for today. It was scheduled for a probable mission Tuesday. We'll have to see if they send a mission out anyway, which doesn't happen often.
"NOUS42 KNHC 311448
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 31 JULY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-066
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PROBABLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.5N 80.0W FOR 02/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 03/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE."
From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php |
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Mon. 2am: T'storms with 97L have "increased & become significantly better organized overnight" - Chris in Tampa, 8/1/2016, 2:29 am Post A Reply
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