96L today
Posted by cypresstx on 7/28/2016, 12:06 pm
East Atlantic (Meteosat):  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/eatl.html


Floater (GOES):



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/96L.html


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL962016


http://hurricanetrack.com/2016/07/28/96l-probably-wont-develop-and-heres-why/

Vertical instability or the ability of the atmosphere to produce convection is still somewhat below average in the deep tropics right now. This may be why 96L is not developing for the time being


https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/96l-off-the-coast-of-africa-growing-more-organized

The Thursday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all supported some limited development of 96L, but stopped short of predicting it would become a tropical depression. The 00Z Thursday run of the GFS ensemble forecast, done by taking the operational high-resolution version of the model and running it at lower resolution with slight perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate a range of possible outcomes, had more than 50% of its twenty ensemble members predict that a tropical depression would form this weekend or early next week in the eastern Atlantic. Most of these forecasts had the storm dying out the middle Atlantic, due to unfavorable conditions, and none had it becoming a hurricane. Between 10 - 20% of the 50 members of the 00Z Thursday European ensemble model forecasts showed 96L becoming a tropical depression. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 40%, respectively. Though the long-range uncertainty on what 96L might do is high, one reasonable scenario is for the system to steadily grow in organization the next few days, come close to or achieve tropical depression status by Saturday, then get ripped up by wind shear and dry air well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week. Should 96L become a tropical storm, the next name on the Atlantic list is Earl.

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Invest 96L - Just off Africa, 20% chance through 5 days as of 8am Wednesday - Chris in Tampa, 7/27/2016, 8:27 am
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