| Short track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205659.shtml?5-daynl#contents Satellite floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/04L_floater.html TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 The low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical depression, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. Although the thunderstorm activity was closer to the center of the cyclone earlier today, the convection is now a little better organized with some evidence of banding features on the north side. In addition, data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the circulation is well defined and has maximum winds near 30 kt. This intensity is also supported by NOAA buoy 42055 which has been reporting winds around 30 kt most of the day. The depression is moving westward at about 7 kt to the south a mid-level high pressure system over the south-central United States. This general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is predicted, taking the cyclone inland over eastern Mexico in about 24 hours, or perhaps sooner. The official NHC track forecast is close to the GFS and ECMWF models. The strong southwesterly wind shear currently affecting the depression is expected to lessen by tonight, which could allow for slight strengthening before the system begins to interact with land. Once inland, the cyclone is expected to quickly dissipate when it interacts with rugged terrain. Based on the forecast, the Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for a portion of the coast of Mexico within the state of Veracruz. The primary hazard associated with this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico tonight through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 19.9N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 20.0N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 20.3N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 21/0600Z 20.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 94.7W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 94.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or early Monday. The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown |