Re: South Texas Tropical Storm?
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 6/18/2016, 5:58 pm
All the models take it into Mexico in about two days, but storms in this area can seem to spin up more quickly, seemingly due to the shape of the Bay of Campeche.

While shear is moderate, I'm not sure how much of a problem that might be given the organization of the storm.


Recon schedule:



NOUS42 KNHC 181528
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 18 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
        VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JUNE 2016
        TCPOD NUMBER.....16-023

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
      FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
      A. 19/1800Z                    A. 20/0530Z,1130Z
      B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST          B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
      C. 19/1530Z                    C. 20/0300Z
      D. 21.5N 95.0W                 D. 22.0N 96.5W
      E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2230Z        E. 20/0500Z TO 20/1130Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF



SHIPS shear forecast, from 2pm Saturday:



                   * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                   * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                   *  INVEST      AL942016  06/18/16  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    20    21    21    22    23    25    27    28    32    37    41    45
V (KT) LAND       20    20    21    21    22    23    24    26    26    33    38    42    45
V (KT) LGEM       20    20    20    19    18    17    19    24    26    31    34    37    39
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        21    26    26    22    20    15     7     4     4    10     9    10     5
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -4    -1     2     0    -1    -3    -3     4     3     2     0     0     1
SHEAR DIR        254   242   250   254   244   268   278   346   357    64    63    82    83
SST (C)         29.3  29.6  29.6  29.5  29.3  28.8  28.5  28.5  28.4  26.8  24.1  24.1  24.2
POT. INT. (KT)   156   161   161   160   157   148   144   145   144   123   100   100   101
ADJ. POT. INT.   145   149   148   148   145   135   133   137   137   116    93    94    95
200 MB T (C)   -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.1  -0.4  -0.3  -0.2  -0.2  -0.1  -0.2  -0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)      11    10     9     7     8     9     9     9     9     7     5     2     1
700-500 MB RH     65    69    71    70    70    72    70    69    64    62    56    52    48
MODEL VTX (KT)     9    10    11    10    10     8     7     4     2  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    -5    14    12     5    -3   -13   -20    -2   -22   -18   -33   -53   -40
200 MB DIV        29    42    30    16     5    39    19    13    -7   -18   -11   -12   -26
700-850 TADV       0    -3   -15   -15    -1    -9    -2    -4     2     5    -2    -1     6
LAND (KM)         82   155   195   235   211    62   -91  -362   -85   188   235   423   688
LAT (DEG N)     19.7  20.0  20.3  20.5  20.9  21.7  21.9  21.6  21.3  21.0  20.8  20.4  19.7
LONG(DEG W)     91.4  92.3  93.0  93.9  94.8  96.6  98.7 101.3 104.4 107.4 110.3 113.1 116.1
STM SPEED (KT)     8     8     8     9    10     9    11    14    14    14    14    14    15
HEAT CONTENT      33    21    21    24    26    25     4     0     9     0     0     0     0

 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/  8      CX,CY:  -7/  2
 T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  649  (MEAN=618)
 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  15.0 (MEAN=14.5)
 % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  21.0 (MEAN=65.0)
 PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            3.0

                       INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                        6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
 SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   5.  12.  19.  25.  29.  33.  34.  36.
 VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.   0.
 VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.
 VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -1.   0.   1.
 PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 200/250 MB TEMP.      -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
 THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
 700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -4.
 MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   0.   0.  -2.  -4.  -8. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15.
 850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.
 200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   1.   2.
 850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
 ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
 STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
 DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
 GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -5.  -5.  -3.  -3.
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 TOTAL CHANGE           0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   7.   8.  12.  17.  21.  25.

               CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   20. LAT, LON:   19.7    91.4

     ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST     06/18/16  18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

    Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.60         999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    23.0      28.8  to    2.9       0.22         999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    25.0       0.0  to  155.1       0.16         999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    15.0      37.5  to    2.9       0.65         999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -1.0       2.8  to   -3.1       0.65         999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    20.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.00           0.0
D200 (10**7s-1)       :    24.4     -23.1  to  181.5       0.23         999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   127.0      28.4  to  139.1       0.89         999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:    23.7     100.0  to    0.0       0.76         999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    24.2     960.3  to  -67.1       0.91         999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Logistic:     2.4%   13.8%    6.2%    2.2%    0.0%    0.9%    4.6%
   Bayesian:     0.0%    0.4%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.1%
  Consensus:     0.8%    4.7%    2.1%    0.7%    0.0%    0.3%    1.6%

  ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST     06/18/16  18 UTC         ##
  ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
  ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST     06/18/2016  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
     TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  20    20    21    21    22    23    24    26    26    33    38    42    45
18HR AGO           20    19    20    20    21    22    23    25    25    32    37    41    44
12HR AGO           20    17    16    16    17    18    19    21    21    28    33    37    40
 6HR AGO           20   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
     NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
 IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
 IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

Path of V (KT) LAND (DSHP):
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&storm=94&latestinvest=1&display=google_map&latestrun=1&models=DSHP



Jefff Masters has a blog on it today:
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/94l-may-develop-bring-heavy-rains-to-mexicos-bay-of-campeche-coast
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8pm Fri: Through 5 days, 30% chance for area moving across Yucatan into Bay of Campeche - Chris in Tampa, 6/17/2016, 8:07 pm
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