East Pacific sees 1st depression; TS watch issued for part of Mexico, though may not become TS
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 6/6/2016, 5:00 pm
Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep1+shtml/203439.shtml?5-daynl

Floaters:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

It's not forecast to develop into a tropical storm, but it would only be 5mph more.






TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012016
400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

The compact area of low pressure near the coast of southern Mexico
has developed a well-defined center of circulation and sufficiently
organized deep convection to be classified a tropical depression,
the first one of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.
The initial intensity estimate of 30 kt is based on a pair of
recent ASCAT passes and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.
The depression is a sheared tropical cyclone with much of the
associated deep convection located to the north of the low-level
center.  Since the wind shear is expected to remain high, no
change in strength is predicted before the depression reaches the
coast on Tuesday.

The system is moving northeastward at about 6 kt on the east
side of a broad trough that extends southwestward from the Gulf of
Mexico.  A continued northeastward motion at about the same forward
speed is expected, bringing the center near the coast in about 24
hours. However, since the vortex is strongly tilted, the mid-level
center of the system will likely move inland as early as tonight.

The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy
rainfall, which has already begun over portions of southern
Mexico.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides, especially in areas of high terrain.

The Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for a
portion of southern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 14.2N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  07/0600Z 15.1N  96.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  07/1800Z 15.9N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  08/0600Z 16.5N  94.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
48H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi






TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012016
400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS NEAR
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 97.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Puerto Escondido to Boca De Pijijiapan.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Escondido to Boca De Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 97.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.  On
the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to
approach the coast of southern Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before the cyclone makes
landfall.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of around 8
inches possible through Wednesday over the southern Mexican states
of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, and eastern Veracruz.  These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
77
In this thread:
East Pacific sees 1st depression; TS watch issued for part of Mexico, though may not become TS - Chris in Tampa, 6/6/2016, 5:00 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.