Still Tropical Depression Three at 5pm Sunday; Tropical Storm watch on Atlantic side
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 6/5/2016, 5:18 pm
3 Day Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/205438.shtml?3day#contents






TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER   2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

Corrected for breakpoint names

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM DEPRESSION SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 87.9W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of Georgia and
northeast Florida from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the
Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Watches or warnings may need to be extended northward along the
southeast United States coast later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 87.9 West.  The
depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
tonight through Monday.  On this track, the center of the depression
is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend area
Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible
across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and
Florida.

STORM SURGE...The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters.  The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts
possible in a few locations.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf is possible along the
Florida East coast, within the Tropical Storm Watch area.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday.

TORNADOES...A few tornadoes are possible on Monday across portions
of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown






TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

The depression has changed little in organization since this
morning.  The center is exposed well to the west of a linear band
of deep convection that extends from the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico southward across western Cuba and into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea.  The initial intensity has been held at 30
kt.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
sampling the convective band to see if there are stronger winds.

Although environmental conditions are not very conducive for
strengthening, the depression is expected to become a tropical
storm before it reaches the coast of Florida late Monday.  The NHC
forecast is closest to the GFS and ECMWF models that indicate modest
deepening and bring the system to tropical storm strength tonight or
Monday.  The system is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone
over the western Atlantic in 2 to 3 days.

The depression is moving northward at about 10 kt.  The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory.
The depression is expected to move north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed between a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern
Texas and a ridge over the western Atlantic.  The track guidance
remains in very good agreement through 48 hours.  Later in the
forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward in
deep-layer southwesterly flow over the western Atlantic.

The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 23.3N  87.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  06/0600Z 25.1N  87.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  06/1800Z 28.0N  85.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  07/0600Z 31.0N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
48H  07/1800Z 34.0N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H  08/1800Z 41.9N  58.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  09/1800Z 48.0N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1800Z 53.5N  35.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Still Tropical Depression Three at 5pm Sunday; Tropical Storm watch on Atlantic side - Chris in Tampa, 6/5/2016, 5:18 pm
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