| Some other intensity models: http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&storm=91&latestinvest=1&display=wind_diagram Such as DSHP, the SHIPS model taking land into account. "V (KT) LAND" in the below text output. 0Z model output below. From: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 05/27/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 40 45 48 50 49 48 48 46 45 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 40 45 48 42 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 34 35 38 35 30 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 28 16 18 18 3 17 16 19 14 26 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -5 -2 -4 -6 -1 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 223 239 228 198 206 160 181 165 176 208 201 227 213 SST (C) 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.7 24.5 25.7 24.5 23.0 22.4 21.9 21.3 21.1 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 111 109 107 103 101 111 101 90 85 83 80 78 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 96 95 92 90 97 87 77 73 72 70 68 69 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -57.1 -57.4 -57.2 -56.8 -57.1 -57.1 -57.3 -57.1 -57.4 -57.3 -57.7 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -0.9 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -0.7 -0.8 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 4 7 5 7 3 7 700-500 MB RH 57 55 56 53 49 48 54 60 59 55 56 57 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -17 -14 -20 -22 -38 -36 -46 -29 -31 -38 -37 -9 200 MB DIV 15 7 8 -4 -16 17 32 0 32 26 4 2 12 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 6 4 5 5 3 0 -3 0 1 -4 LAND (KM) 844 835 767 675 557 337 107 -33 -109 -134 -147 -158 -144 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 11 11 11 8 5 2 3 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 15. 18. 20. 19. 18. 18. 16. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.4 70.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 05/27/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.32 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 29.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 165.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.3% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 05/27/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 05/27/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 40 45 48 42 33 29 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 36 41 44 38 29 25 23 23 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 35 38 32 23 19 17 17 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT |