Re: 2016 NHC Season Changes
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 3/13/2016, 3:16 am
Mixed case will be good. It's been a long time coming. I guess it probably takes a long time to have software updated and give notice.

I still don't know how this will work:
"Potential Tropical Cyclone One"
If that doesn't end up forming, will the next thing that develops be "Tropical Depression One" or "Tropical Depression Two". I'm also curious about numbering in the historical best track database, but they do renumber things there sometimes after the season is over if a storm is added. I'm working on an update to my model system to create historical data better and noticed that they really do some crazy things there. (For example, Tropical Depression One in 1988 has a storm number of 13, with all the things that were just depressions being numbered from 13 to 19.)

As for updates at HurricaneCity, I have also been working on adding Euro data to the model system which Jim mentioned. European model tropical cyclone track data will be added to the existing NHC best track and model system. (Just the model lines.) The ECMWF, that puts the model out, decided in 2009 to start making it available for free, for non-commercial or commercial use, and started making it available in 2010. I only realized it was available in a method I could actually decode at the end of last year when Jim had asked about it.

I'm not sure which data from the Euro we will display at HurricaneCity, but the HRES Euro will at least be integrated into the best performing models. It will probably be like we do the GFS ensemble, appearing in the raw model data on the site, but the individual ensemble members are excluded from the best performing models map. 52 Euro models are available, 50 ensemble members, a control member and the HRES Euro. Data is available through up to 10 days. And only for depressions and higher, not for invests.

About the Euro:
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/medium-range-forecasts


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If anyone wants to know the really detailed information about how to view the raw Euro data, the track data is text data stored in binary form, so you can't open the file and view it. You have to download the data from their FTP site here:
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/public-wmo-and-acmad-datasets
Publicly accessible (WMO Essential)

It requires login details they give, which will automatically log you in if you click the links there, or:

The site is:
ftp://data-portal.ecmwf.int/

Username: wmo
Password: essential

You click on the latest date folder at the bottom and then to the bottom of that folder you will see files that have "tropical_cyclone_track" in the name and end in "bufr4.bin". Anything with a storm number greater than 50 should be ignored. Data there is available for basins around the world. Data is only available for the last 30 days. The other files in the folder are "grib2.bin" files. That is probably what you see graphically on sites like Tropical Tidbits. (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_uv850) I don't know how to decode that data in real time and create images.

Here is something for example that you might see:

A_JSXX03ECEP120000_C_ECMP_20160212000000_tropical_cyclone_track_WINSTON_171p5degE_-17p7degS_bufr4.bin 19.0 kB 2/12/16, 8:21:00 AM
A_JSXX03ECMF120000_C_ECMP_20160212000000_tropical_cyclone_track_WINSTON_171p5degE_-17p7degS_bufr4.bin 763 B 2/12/16, 6:55:00 AM

The "ECEP" file, the larger one of the two nearly identical file names, contains 52 models. The "ECMF" one, the smaller one, contains just the HRES Euro. The small file comes out first and the larger one about an hour and a half later. Twice daily.

In that example the storm is Winston and the coordinates are included in the file name. You can see that is from the Southern Hemisphere.

As for when the data comes out, it comes out at the exact same times each day.

Small file with one model:

"Dissemination schedule

I-iii Tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone products / Time available
12 UTC based / 18:55
00 UTC based / 06:55"

From:
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/set-i

Large file with 52 models:

"Dissemination schedule

Atmospheric fields

12 UTC based Forecast time / Time Available
Derived products 0 to D+10 / 20:21

00 UTC based Forecast time / Time available
Derived products 0 to D+10 / 08:21"

From: http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/set-iii

You download the binary BURF file and you can currently decode the file here when you select the file from your computer and then upload it:
http://old.ecmwf.int/products/data/d/check/

Eventually my site will likely have data worldwide, but for the start of the season I only expect to have the Euro data integrated into the current model system since I don't have a system designed yet to display the data for other basins other than the Atlantic, East Pacific and Central Pacific.
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2016 NHC Season Changes - cypresstx, 3/10/2016, 7:47 am
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