forecast to return to hurricane-strength winds, possibly
Posted by cypresstx on 1/15/2016, 1:22 pm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/151457.shtml

and a "kudos" to the OPC  


000
WTNT41 KNHC 151457
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016
1100 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016

Surface observations, scatterometer, and geostationary satellite data indicate that Alex has weakened, and the current intensity estimate is 60 kt.  Wind and pressure observations from Terceira along with the scatterometer data indicate that the center is tilted north-northeastward with height, indicative of some south-southwesterly vertical shear.  The global models show significant thermal advection developing over the eastern portion of the circulation very soon, and observation from the western Azores show cold air advection.  These factors indicate that Alex will likely become an extratropical cyclone later today.  Some restrengthening due to baroclinic processes is possible in the short term, but the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to merge with or become absorbed by another extratropical low within 48 hours.

Alex continues to accelerate and is now moving about 360/24.  A gradual turn to the northwest is expected as the system rotates around a broader cyclonic gyre over the northern Atlantic.  The official forecast track is roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance.

The forecast points and wind radii are based mostly on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 39.3N  27.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  16/0000Z 45.1N  28.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H  16/1200Z 52.7N  31.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  17/0000Z 57.0N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  17/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

99
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Alex now a hurricane based on best track data - Chris in Tampa, 1/14/2016, 8:24 am
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