Re: ok now this is a little crazy...
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 1/8/2016, 2:21 am
It's been a crazy week.

Bob Henson covers some of it here:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/rare-january-depression-in-central-pacific-atlantic-subtropical-storm
He mentions that Pali may have had its origins south of the Equator.

In the Central Pacific, Nine-C, the lowest forming depression ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere north of the Equator dissipated, but then the next one, Pali, became the lowest forming tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere north of the Equator and the earliest cyclone on record in the calendar year for the Central Pacific since 1950. (It is listed as the first storm of 2016 in the Central Pacific, but that basin doesn't start with the A name each year, they pick up where they left off on four different lists. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/names.php ) Looking at the rest of the Western Hemisphere North of the Equator, there is no January storms for the Eastern Pacific since 1949, but there is an earlier storm in 1938 that occurred in the Atlantic in January.

But wait, there's more.

Meanwhile, south of the Equator in the Southern Hemisphere, Ula crossed from the Western Hemisphere to the Eastern Hemisphere in the first day of the year.

Keeping south of the Equator, 90Q was off Brazil this week. The Brazilian Navy had it listed as a subtropical depression in a map, but there is no official numbering down there.

And now back closer to the part of the world where most of us are, the NHC is watching this area in the Atlantic, although there is no official invest associated with it.

But in the four quadrants of the Western Hemisphere, if we broke it apart like that (east of N. America, west of N. America, east of S. America and well west of S. America) there has kind of been something in each this week. It's winter up here, but summer down south, so that is not too surprising down there. And the Central Pacific is warm, especially next to the equator, despite being technically winter.

I updated the graphing in the model system this week to something I have been working on for the last month and a half. (One big update, model names are now on the graph in popup text.) Wind speed forecast for Pali in the Central Pacific:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=cp&year=2016&storm=01&display=wind_diagram&latestrun=1

If anyone has any suggestions let me know.

Other graphs were updated as well:

Model error:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=cp&year=2016&storm=01&display=modelerror&type=chart&errortype=average&latestrun=1

Pressure forecast:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=cp&year=2016&storm=01&display=pressure_diagram&latestrun=1
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ok now this is a little crazy... - cypresstx, 1/7/2016, 8:09 pm
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