| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024231.shtml?5day?large#contents Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/12L_floater.html Models: http://hurricanecity.com/models/ TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2015 Geostationary satellite imagery during the late afternoon showed that the circulation associated with the small low pressure area near the southeastern Bahamas had become better defined. During the past few hours, thunderstorm activity has increased over the eastern portion of the circulation, and the system has acquired enough organization to be classified as a tropical depression, the twelfth of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which is based a data T-number of 2.0 from TAFB and recent ship observations. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the tropical depression Monday morning and should provide a better assessment of cyclone's intensity. The initial motion estimate is 305/12 kt. The depression is forecast to move northwestward tonight, then turn north- northwestward and northward on Monday and Monday night while it moves around the western portion of a low- to mid-level ridge over the west-central Atlantic. The tropical cyclone should accelerate northeastward on Tuesday when it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the model envelope. The depression is forecast to remain in a low shear environment and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next day or two. This should allow for strengthening and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS/LGEM guidance and the intensity consensus model IVCN. The small tropical cyclone is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low pressure area and frontal system that will be moving off the southeast United States coast in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 23.0N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 24.0N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 26.2N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 29.1N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 32.2N 71.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0000Z...Absorbed by extratropical low $$ Forecaster Brown TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 73.0W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SE OF SAN SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Central and Northwestern Bahamas, and for the Acklins, Samana Cays, Crooked Island, and Long Cay in the southeastern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Acklins, Samana Cays, Crooked Island, and Long Cay in the southeastern Bahamas * Central Bahamas * Northwest Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 73.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue overnight. A turn toward the north-northwest and north are expected on Monday and Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to pass near or over portions of the central Bahamas later tonight and early Monday, and near or over the northwestern Bahamas late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas late tonight or early Monday, and spread over portions of the northwest Bahamas Monday afternoon. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas through Monday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown |