Strengthened into a hurricane and forecast to be a major hurricane
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/22/2015, 2:57 am
HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015            
100 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...PATRICIA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...FURTHER STRENGTHENING ANTICIPATED...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 101.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------                          
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PATRICIA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A
HURRICANE.  AT 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.5
WEST.  PATRICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH
(26 KM/H).  THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF PATRICIA SHOULD BE
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY, AND
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL:  PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES, OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO, COLIMA, MICHOACAN AND
GUERRERO LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------                                                  
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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In East Pacific, hurricane & tropical storm watches along some of Mexican coast for Patricia - Chris in Tampa, 10/21/2015, 6:24 am
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