WPC rainfall forecast & radar loops
Posted by cypresstx on 10/2/2015, 8:14 am
| http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 438 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 ...VALID 12Z FRI OCT 02 2015 - 12Z SAT OCT 03 2015... ...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... a very large excessive rainfall threat on tap this period from the southeast---into the southern to central appalachians and mid atlantic. little movement expected to the frontal boundary currently draped from eastern nc to off the southeast coast. strong east to southeasterly low level flow in an axis of much above average pw values will continue to overrun this front. this high pw axis continues to have a well defined link extending all the way into the tropical east pacific---across the western caribbean and into the vicinity of joaquin. this strong overrunning combined with very favorable upper diffluence ahead of the upstream closed low will support an above average confidence forecast for the widespread heavy to excessive precipitation totals this period. while widespread heavy totals are expected across a large area---there is model consensus for the potential of especially heavy totals from sc---southeastern nc into the southern appalachians where the anomalous onshore flow/moisture flux will be focused. in these areas---training of heavy precipitation may support 5-10"+ totals---with significant flooding issues possible.    |
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