Hurricane warning issued for parts of the Bahamas
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/30/2015, 4:57 am
Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/084150.shtml?5day?large#contents

Satellite:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/11L_floater.html
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL112015






TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
500 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

The coldest convective cloud tops are located to the east of the
estimated center position, but there have been hints of an eye in
infrared imagery overnight. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 60 kt. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on its way to
investigate Joaquin this morning. Conditions are expected to be
conducive for intensification during the next few days, with Joaquin
moving over very warm waters with shear steadily decreasing. The
hurricane intensity guidance and the latest runs of the GFS, UKMET,
and ECMWF all show Joaquin intensifying, and in fact, the global
models show the central pressure in the 950s or lower. The NHC
forecast is near the latest intensity model consensus, and has
Joaquin peaking in 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be
moving into a higher shear environment and over cooler waters, which
should result in slow weakening.

Joaquin continues to move west-southwestward under the influence of
a short-wave ridge to its north, and the initial motion estimate is
245/05. This motion should continue for the next 24 hours, and
Joaquin is expected to then turn slowly westward as the ridge
weakens on Thursday. The UKMET and ECMWF continue to show Joaquin
moving farther southwestward into the central Bahamas than the rest
of the guidance. The new NHC track in the short range is a little
south of the previous one, but north of the UKMET/ECMWF solution.
Given this new forecast, the government of the Bahamas has issued a
Hurricane Warning for the central Bahamas and a Hurricane Watch for
part of the northwestern Bahamas.

After 36 hours, Joaquin is forecast to turn northwestward and then
northward as it interacts with a deep-layer trough that cuts off
over the southeastern United States in about 3 days. Much of the
deterministic guidance shows Joaquin turning northwestward
toward the mid-Atlantic coast by days 4 and 5. However, the ECMWF
continues to show an offshore solution with a track west of Bermuda,
but has shifted to the left this cycle by about 150 miles at day 5.
While the overall synoptic pattern is similar between the models,
the eventual track of Joaquin appears sensitive to just how far
southwest it moves in the first 36 to 48 hours and how this affect
the eventual interaction with the upper-level low. The GFS, HWRF,
and GFDL show a sharp turn back to toward the coast in 4 days, while
the ECMWF is slower to bring Joaquin northward and ejects the
cyclone toward the northeast. The UKMET is between those two
scenarios with a broader turn back toward the coast by day 5. There
is still ensemble support for a wide range of solutions, so
confidence in any deterministic model solution remains quite low.
The NHC track has been nudged a little to the left this cycle to
reflect the westward shift in the guidance, but lies on the eastern
side of the guidance envelope given the ECMWF solution.

Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the period
remains very low, since the environmental steering currents are
complex and not being handled in a consistent manner by the models.
Given that a wide range of outcomes is possible, it is too soon to
say what impacts, if any, Joaquin will have on the United States.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 25.4N  72.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  30/1800Z 25.1N  73.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  01/0600Z 24.7N  73.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  01/1800Z 24.7N  74.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  02/0600Z 25.2N  74.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  03/0600Z 28.3N  73.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  04/0600Z 33.0N  73.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 37.0N  73.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan






TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
500 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE HUNTERS ON THEIR WAY TO INVESTIGATE JOAQUIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 72.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island. This includes the
Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joaquin was
located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 72.5 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
west and a decrease in forward speed are forecast on Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to move near
or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Joaquin is forecast to become a hurricane today. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate Joaquin
this morning.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the hurricane
warning area by midday Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible over San
Salvador and Rum Cay through Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of 3
to 5 inches are possible over the remainder of the central Bahamas
through Friday morning, with 2 to 4 inches expected over the
northwestern and southeastern Bahamas.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the east coast of Florida and the southeast coast of the United
States by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan






http://hurricanes.gov/
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Hurricane warning issued for parts of the Bahamas - Chris in Tampa, 9/30/2015, 4:57 am
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